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Today, those at the Fed offer investors a good amount of confidence in predicting the pace of the economic recovery. They appear highly confident that any spurt of inflation will be transitory. If wrong, they offer complete confidence in their unproven tools to halt inflation. We know from historical experience that when the inflation genie gets out of the bottle, it is very difficult to arrest.
Wall Street analysts shrug off record equity and bond market valuations with forecasts of growth and normality. Investors buying in at such valuations must have total trust that the Fed and Wall Street are correct. Despite the evidence that professional economic prognosticators are not very good at their jobs, everyone seems assured of the future.
Money supply growth, and the fiscal deficit are at levels that are anything but ordinary. Are we to believe the effects and consequences of such extreme monetary and fiscal policy, occurring concurrently, are easy to predict? What kind of professional would fail to recognize the peril of such a claim?

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